Student Success Charts

Was this forwarded to you by a friend? Sign up for the On Student Success newsletter and get your own copy of the news that matters sent to your inbox every week.

The state and the city where I live seem to be on fire. This picture was taken at noon.

Among other bad consequences of this the fires are driving more rattlesnakes down into living areas.

This seems a good time to distract myself with some charts.

The forgotten success story

The progress the US has made in increasing post-secondary attainment is extraordinary, and something that I know I at least sometimes forget.

In 1940 an incredibly small proportion of students - 5% - attained bachelor’s degrees. That percentage varied quite a lot by state.

By 2025 that percentage had improved considerably, although the state variation remained large.

Rates increased rapidly between 1940 and 2025 though at different rates by ethnic group.

It is easy to focus on the persistence of attainment gaps. Those gaps matter. But it is also worth remembering that mass higher education is a relatively recent invention. The United States went from a society where a bachelor's degree was genuinely rare to one where it is increasingly the norm.

When navigation becomes inequality

A fascinating post from HEPI looks at how the university choices of UK students from different family income quintiles are affected by clearing. The author makes the argument that the centralized application process (UCAS) is not just sorting students. It is rewarding students who can better interpret and navigate the system. For my US readers this represents a centralized application process. A student’s Firm choice represents their own top selection, an Insurance choice is a backup selection (or safety school) and Clearing is the UK's late-stage admissions marketplace where institutions fill remaining places.

It relies heavily on the concept of matching—whether the grades of the student (in this case A’ Levels) are similar to others who have been made offers by the same institution.

The two most disadvantaged groups of students start out being slightly over-matched but as they go through the process become worse and worse off until by clearing they are being seriously under-matched. The two most advantaged groups actually do slightly better from Insurance to clearing.

This is another example of a theme I keep returning to. Opportunity is not enough. Students also need the ability to interpret opportunity. The same admissions system appears to produce different outcomes depending on how well students understand and navigate it.

We are all getting older

The decline in the male labor force participation in the US is not as bad as we might think. Data from AIBM shows that some of the decline in labor force participation is due to population ageing. Controlling for that means that men’s labor force participation rate declined from 75% in 2000 to 73% today. Not controlling for age shows a decline from 75% to 68%. Pay attention to the pesky details.

Aging explains much of the decline, but not all of it. That distinction matters because the policy solutions are very different.

The Nigerian football engine

Readers have complained that I don’t have enough World Cup soccerball coverage

Okay, maybe only Neil.

“Immigrants: We get the job done!”

I’d love to come up with a way to similarly show the impact of immigrants on their home economies.

Escaping mum and dad

Applicants to higher education in the UK are being driven more by a need to live apart from their families compared to the recent past.

China’s hidden research engine

Discussions of Chinese research often focus on universities and government labs. But the chart shows that enterprise R&D now dominates the system. The state is still heavily involved, but increasingly through incentives, tax policy, and strategic direction rather than direct spending.

That said, there is still a lot of government involvement in the form of tax incentives etc.

The inexperienced need not apply

A chart from the Strada Institute for the Future of Work shows employers ranking of recent college graduates.

Employers routinely say they want graduates with experience. The question is whether employers themselves are creating enough opportunities for students to get that experience. That would be a much smaller chart.

Education and happiness

Higher education doesn’t solve everything and outcomes vary a lot by major but having a bachelor’s degree leads to far higher perceptions of financial well-being.

Based on my own experience I suspect that having a PhD puts you below the 40% mark :-)

Looking back at these charts, what strikes me is how often the most interesting story is hiding underneath the obvious one.

Chaser: It would have been the best day of mine too, TBH

If you enjoyed this post I have two things to ask. One, send it to everyone you know who may also enjoy it or find it useful. Two, subscribe to Adam Tooze’s Chartbook, from whom I nicked the inspiration and a couple of charts.

Thanks for being a subscriber.